How Owen Smith Can Win Labour Leadership

It has been a positive week for Owen Smith, a surprising endorsement from GMB Union plus a confident and assured performance in the latest hustings event. It has fuelled hopes from Smith supporters that the race for leader may actually be closer than many assumed. Smith still has a mountain to climb and cannot afford many mistakes however progress is being made. I'm using this post to outline a few ways I believe Owen Smith can close the gap further.

The key areas where I believe Smith has the edge over Jeremy Corbyn are on policies, economic competence and the EU. If these issues are front and centre in the campaign until September then Smith will be in with a chance. The other, potentially crucial, advantage Owen Smith has over Jeremy Corbyn is the use of the mainstream media. It's been clear that Owen has had a much greater presence on television in particular, this means a greater reach and greater cut through with his ideas.

The setbacks so far have been largely at the hands of due diligence. The handling and process of calling a challenge has been the major line of attack from Corbyn, the argument against this had begun to form judging by the hustings last night. The high court decision could be further ammunition for Corbyn on this front.

Lines of Attack

The important thing for Owen Smith is to establish clear differences between himself and Corbyn. This is vital because members won't be interested in a watered down version of the same thing, so to establish differences and make clear there is a choice, is vital. From my point of view, the biggest difference between the two candidates and a huge potential vote winner for Smith is the quality and detail of policies. The party has been starved of policy based debate in the past year so if Smith can focus arguments on the quality and substance in his policies this will be a major point.

The beauty is the detail

The added bonus of focusing on the policies and depth that Smith offers is that while it is a strength for Owen, it is also a weakness of Corbyn. Many of Corbyn's answers, particularly in Thursday's hustings, were vague and lacked specifics or depth of policy which juxtaposed against Owen's mentions of 50p top rate of tax, 20% corporation tax and wealth taxes showed a clear difference.

This is a good link to how and why Owen Smith wins when it comes to the economy. While Corbyn focuses on emphasising a fair economy for all, his argument against lacks specifics of how this will be achieved. The amount of thought out and fully funded ideas from Smith makes clear the lack of substance Corbyn offers. The lack of policy based debate on the economy or any other area before this leadership race means there is a thirst and an interest which Smith can play to.

Finally on the EU, Smith has made a bold move to continue fighting against Brexit, possibly to the point of a second referendum. While this may be a harder sell to the wider electorate at the moment, I think it is a well judged stance for the membership. The reason I think it is well judged is because many Labour supporters voted to stay in and are dismayed that the country could be leaving, it is also clear that many members don't believe Corbyn showed enough passion for, or commitment to, the EU. The combination of these issues mean Smith's stance could be a vote winner, while it also portrays Corbyn to still be less enthusiastic about the EU than Smith.

The ability to spread these key issues and the content and substance Smith offers through the mainstream media means he will reach members who don't attend rallies or hustings. As long as Corbyn remains inward looking, focusing his attention on those who attend his rallies rather than television appearances I don't believe he is reaching as big an audience as he could. This could prove to be a key area in the campaign.

The Debate Focus

As with any election the debates will be crucial to the outcome and therefore both candidates have to have strategies ready to use in order to try to emphasise their strengths. My advice to Owen Smith would be to continually ask Corbyn, how? When Jeremy mentions one of his broad, idealistic 'policies' then the simple but effective response would be to ask specifically how he would achieve this. I don't believe he would be able to provide the specific taxes or cuts or funded investment to back up his claim. This would emphasise the difference between the lightweight Corbyn and the content backed Smith.

I would also try to force Corbyn to talk numbers and cold hard facts. I'm not sure Corbyn has a grasp on the numbers and the weighting behind his ideas, if the conversation was to go this way then it would show not only his inability to back up his phrases but highlight the competence and advantage Smith has on the economy and on policy. On the EU I would also try to get Corbyn to commit to a stance, what sort of deal would he accept, what his red lines are and whether he would ever fight to keep Britain in the EU again. Smith's advantage in this area is that his opinion is clear, he would fight to stay in and would put any tabled deal to the public to rubber stamp. Corbyn's stance is still unclear so it is an area that can be probed and Smith's advantage increased.

The Blairite Witch Project

Corbyn's most effective line of attack is over Smith's resignation from the shadow cabinet. At first this seemed to stump Smith although there were indications of a response forming in the second debate. I think the most effective counter to this argument is for Owen to show his high ambitions for the party (to form a government, lead in polls, push back Tory cuts, etc) and say that all the evidence shows Corbyn can't and won't achieve this. Put it back to Jeremy and ask if he was happy with how the party was performing, if not why he didn't act and insist that he couldn't sit around while the Conservatives undo everything Labour achieved in government.

In Conclusion

The strategy and almost chess like point and counter point of politics is one of the reasons I am so passionate about politics. Thinking about the strengths and weaknesses of you and your opponent, planning the lines of attack, responses to it and how to respond to that response is, in my view, a basic element of successful politics. It is an element that I haven't really seen from Corbyn and one of the reasons I am backing Owen Smith, who has clearly deployed a strategic and thought out campaign so far.

I believe if Owen Smith continues to employ the same tactics and maybe takes some of my ideas on board then I believe he can win, or at least make it a very close battle for the leadership. I admit my own bias in this piece but I tried to be as fair as possible. In the interest of fairness, if I get requests I'll happily write a similar piece on the strategies that Corbyn could use to boost his chances too.

Hope you've found this interesting, here's to a friendly and policy filled campaign.

The Future of Labour

Who's the better leader here?

Last night saw the first of six leadership debates between current Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and challenger Owen Smith. It was a frustrating night as no one appeared willing to listen and both sides became further entrenched in their own views. It was disappointing from a personal viewpoint because the debate and reaction to it proved to me all the flaws and issues with the probable winner, Corbyn.

Despite his 10 Pledges released yesterday, Corbyn still remains unbelievably light on content and substance. His simplistic responses and stuttering delivery of them seemed to go down well with the converted but will not connect with any uninitiated inside the party never mind outside of it. This cuts to the heart of the Smith challenge and is the answer to why he and others resigned, which seems to be hard for Corbyn to grasp. It was a dispiriting night which is why I wanted to write this blog and why I'll be attempting to care a little less in the coming weeks.

I apologise in advance for the length of this but I have tried to be as comprehensive as possible.

The Election Reaction

The reasons for defeat in May 2015 I believe are key to Corbyn's appeal. Many Labour folk decided that a shift further left was the medicine to our defeat and that Miliband wasn't left enough to win. This is too simplistic and ignores how any election ever has been won. The defeat in 2015 was down to not gaining credibility and trust in handling of the economy, it was down to the fear factor over SNP alliances and it was down to the Conservatives ruthlessly targeting these areas with repeated attacks which were not adequately responded to or fought. Labour lost on these issues and they are all areas where we can still be beaten, even more convincingly. No shift to the left has helped in these areas and no election has ever been won by a party appealing exclusively to one part of the electorate.

The Corbyn Appeal

Jeremy Corbyn's 10 pledges

I believe that Labour members saw Ed Miliband trying to appeal outside of Labour membership and losing. The train of thought followed that if we can't win doing that, then we might as well appoint someone who will give us what we want to hear. I also strongly believe that Corbyn offers the simple answer and allows members to avoid difficult questions about how Labour can win, the challenge we face and the powers versus principles discussion. Corbyn says we can win power by being anti austerity, it feels good so why question it, why look for the proof because it's what some members want to hear. The problem is that come election time media, experts, the opposition will question it and will inevitably find holes in it.

It is this simplistic, upbeat but hollow message which leads me to equate Corbyn to Trump. I believe both operate in the sphere of post truth politics. I believe both appeal using feelings rather than facts. Corbyn says he can bring inequality, he'll make an anti austerity economy that works for all, he'll win an election. Trump says he can make America great again. There's very little substance in any of these claims but it feels good to some who hear it so what is in it for them to question it. Their simplistic message is easy to get on board with and then you add in the 'fact' that the media and/or the establishment is against you which unites the support. Trump is without question far worse and far more dangerous but the similarities in their simplistic message and appeal is pretty obvious.

In the leadership debate alone I counted many times where Corbyn flat out lied. Labour have never been ahead in the polls, before or after the leadership challenge. Labour abstained on the welfare bill on the first reading, as parliamentary process often dictates, eventually universally opposing it and that was not because of his appointment. Labour is hugely untrusted on the economy unlike the feeling Jeremy wants to project. Jeremy did say he wanted article 50 invoked immediately on live TV. However facts don't matter when arguing with feelings like we appear to be, a truly post truth politician.

The Issue I have With Corbyn

There is no disagreement in being anti austerity or fighting inequality or investing in the country, literally who could argue against that? The issue for me is substance, believability and ability to practice what is preached. What I like about Owen Smith is that his policies, while similar to Corbyn's, have substance to them, they have been fully costed and planned and there are specific money raising strategies such as 50p top rate of tax, wealth tax, corporation tax to 20%. Despite the 10 Pledges yesterday I'm still waiting for this substance from the leader even after 10 months in charge. It is this substance which will convince people of Labour's economic credibility, an area Corbyn and McDonnell are already massively behind in polling.

Owen Smith's 20 policies for Labour's future

The response to the policies raised by Owen Smith has also been disappointing and does not inspire faith for a successful election campaign. Instead of looking objectively at the ideas, maybe pointing out flaws or any holes or even praising some, the response was childish. The claims came that they were all Corbyn policies. This playground 'he copied me' response is disappointing especially as if they had been Corbyn policies they would be widely known and advertised in Labour's messages or at least in Corbyn's messages especially, you would have thought, during a Leadership challenge. As someone with an avid interest in politics and a Labour supporter, you'd have thought I would have read or seen that these policies were Corbyn Labour's stances. Either they weren't his policies or Corbyn is an incredibly bad orator and communicator of his policies, whichever way you look at it it's not good.

On top of the lack of substance and empty words, my other issue is how he has led Labour. Since the leadership challenge was announced many Labour MP's have come out and explained how they have been hamstrung by Corbyn's lack of communication and leadership. Whether it is Heidi Alexander on the NHS, Lillian Greenwood on transport, Thangam Debbonaire on her shadow cabinet appointment, Corbyn himself on article 50 or even today on the honours list. There is a long list of strategy errors, miscommunication and lack of leadership which show that Labour fighting for an election win is hamstrung by its leader.

Labour MP's have been criticised as traitors and being disloyal for saying these things but is it really disloyal to serve your party the best you can, keeping these issues secret but eventually quit as you are not able to do the job to the best of your abilities. It is this kind of substance on life under Corbyn leadership which shows his inability to lead sustained attacks, continued messages on topics against the Tories. When you have 172 MP's vote against you, it shows that you are not inspiring faith in your ability to do your job.

Why Owen Smith?

As I have already mentioned I believe he has the substance and the ideas that can convince not only Labour voters but people who have lost faith in Labour. Those who didn't trust Labour on the economy can look at his fully funded rebalancing of corporation tax, top rate of tax, NHS spending, his new deal idea. Those in the country who don't want a coalition for a government can be reassured about that not being Labour's only way into power. Those who want to see sustained, effective attacks on Tory austerity, universal credits, honours awards can be reassured that they will be carried out professionally and with energy. Those who want to see a stronger Labour presence in the mainstream media will see their leader appearing more regularly and appealing to a much wider and broader audience.

Owen Smith has the substance in his ideas, the ability to lead attacks on the Tories, a positive stance with areas he believes in not just areas he opposes, he has the oratory skills and appearance that matter to those with a less intense interest in politics, crucially he is the one looking outside of the party. Owen Smith has a much stronger appeal to those outside of Labour, a bigger ability to convince Labour voters not just members. Owen also has the competence in economic stance which is so crucial in election campaigns.

Electing Jeremy Corbyn with his disastrous personal ratings, catastrophic party polling and limited electoral appeal will be the end of Labour as a democratic force. Whether the PLP splits or if it unites, election day will be a disaster because Corbyn has been framed to millions in the country and cannot be reframed.

It is that electoral demise which is so depressing to me. Seeing the BBC snap poll in May last year was crushing, I don't want to go through that again so soon but with Corbyn as leader I know what is coming, all the signs are there, all the attack points for the Tories are there, it will be brutal. If you want a Labour government in the next year or two, I urge you not to vote for Corbyn.